000 AXNT20 KNHC 270604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 89.0W AT 27/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 47 NM SW OF CHETUMAL AND ABOUT 145 NM OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX PROVIDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W OF 80W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 635-69W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 9N32W 6N43W 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 9N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS TEXAS TO NE MEXICO TO NEAR 25N100W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF GIVING THE AREA DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 14N80W ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 27N88W 24N93W TO MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM ALEX LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED NEAR TROPICAL STORM ALEX AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N E OF 65W ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS LEAVES THE SE CARIBBEAN RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 26N W OF 75W WHILE A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N62W TO 19N65W GENERATING DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 56W-62W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N41W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO 30N76W KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW