000
AXNT20 KNHC 261809
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS NEAR 17.5N 87.2W AT 
26/1800 UTC...OR ABOUT 75 MILES/120 KM TO THE EAST OF
BELIZE CITY...AND ABOUT 100 MILES/160 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. 
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORY AND THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM ALEX COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 95W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 
73W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 
19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W...COVERING PARTS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...
AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W TO THE SOUTH OF 
15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N63W 12N66W INTO VENEZUELA NEAR 7N71W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT.
6N67W. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS WAVE IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND 
FLOW ACTING UPON IT. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 26N58W 
21N62W HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE WAVE AND NOW WILL BE INDEPENDENT 
OF THE WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 56W AND 66W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE 
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
 
...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 8N30W 6N46W...CURVING TOWARD
10N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N80W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA 
COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES 
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR A 23N64W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...REACHES 14N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W 
AND 66W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  TROPICAL STORM ALEX COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST 
OF 80W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N64W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES 
FROM 33N25W TO 32N51W TO 29N66W TO 29N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT