000 AXNT20 KNHC 260548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 84.5W AT 26/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM ESE OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 250 NM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER T.D.ONE PROVIDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S OF 13N INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND N COSTA RICA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 79W FROM OVER CUBA TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 6N19W 8N29W 5N35W 5N45W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND 17W AND 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-24W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N BETWEEN 30W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N100W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER T.D. ONE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 26N GIVING THE SE GULF DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N E OF 90W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH INLAND OVER N ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N E OF 86W TO THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF BUT LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE LOCATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR T.D. ONE AND EXTENDING INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-71W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LEAVING THE SE CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 23N63W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N59W TO 17N61W GENERATING DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 52W-62W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N41W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO OVER THE FAR SE CONUS AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW