000 AXNT20 KNHC 260008 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH A 1004 MB LOW CENTER ANALYZED NEAR 16N83W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS...INCLUDING CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWED GOOD INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOUND EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION IS FOUND ESE OF THE MAIN FEATURE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. THE NORTHERN HAL OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID TO HIGH VALUES OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W...AFFECTING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 80W HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST AT SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 28W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE GULF IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERATED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NE GULF. MORE IMPORTANTLY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENTERING THE SE BASIN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPCOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALONG 83W. DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W. WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 23N55W TO 17N60W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND 23N62W AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N40W...SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA