000 AXNT20 KNHC 251128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0900 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ACROSS CUBA ALONG 20N82W THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N82W TO 12N81W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N-17N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NW...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION JUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 23N MOVING NW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THAT TROPICAL WAVE. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 15N74W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 72W-78W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N22W 4N46W 7N56W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N E OF 23W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N97W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 22N100W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF S OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO E TEXAS COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 93W-96W AND IN THE E GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF 25.5N BETWEEN 82W-86W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF BUT LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 18N84W EXTENDING E TO ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE...W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND FROM 12N-22N W OF 80W TO JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 75W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 68W ANCHORED NEAR 31N77W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-68W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W AS WELL AS DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 49W-56W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N38W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/ GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$- PAW