000 AXNT20 KNHC 250005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS OVER THE NW BASIN OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W FROM 13N TO 25N. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED AROUND 16N82W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS...INCLUDING CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 13N...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 78W-90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCTIVE AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 22W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOUND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC RELATIVE VORTICITY IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONLY FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 16W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W FROM 12N TO 22N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. INFRA-RED IMAGERY FROM PAST FEW DAYS INDICATES THE CONVECTION FROM THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS SHEARING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE A FEW DAYS AGO. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS ALSO INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM AN AREA OF DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10-20N BETWEEN 66W-78W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 5N30W 4N40W 6N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 14W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 27N87W...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST OVER THE NE BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 21N. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENTERING THE SE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH A FEW POSSIBLE WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV CARIBBEAN SEA... CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 74W AND THE OTHER ALONG 83W N OF 13N. DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 13N. WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF HISPANIOLA ...CUBA...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF 12N AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. THE CONVECTION FROM THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS IT MOVES WEST AWAY FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED AROUND 26N56W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS BEING PRODUCED BY TWO MAIN AREAS OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE AREAS OF DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COME FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA