000 AXNT20 KNHC 241757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR 13N80W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BEGINNINGS OF A BROAD SURFACE CENTER...MANIFESTED IN A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 16N82W. THE LOW CENTER EXTENDS SURFACE TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF MOSQUITOS AND ALSO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 74W AND THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 81W AND 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 77W-82W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N18W TO 05N20W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST WITH THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A NORTHERN CYCLONIC RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 16N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 12W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N53W TO 09N55W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 09N-21N BETWEEN 42W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 48W-56W. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N57W WITH THE CONVECTION LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14-18N BETWEEN 65W-74W. ENERGY SHEARED OFF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 56W-65W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 06N30W 04N45W 08N55W 11N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 23W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 31W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 24N98W TO 18N93W. WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 77W-82W. NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE CONUS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N77W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS TO NE TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W DUE TO AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR MAXIMUM AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE TWO TROPICAL WAVES RESIDING WITHIN THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 17N84W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER NEAR EASTERN HONDURAS ALONG 16N72W TO 11N61W NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WHICH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED IN THE SCENARIO THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THERE WILL STILL EXIST A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF NICARAGUA AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 68W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N57W ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 53W FROM BEYOND 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W-58W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY SHEARING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TRANSFERRING ENERGY N-NE AWAY FROM THE WAVE AS IT CONTINUES PROPAGATING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N39W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH W-SW ALONG 30N60W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN