000 AXNT20 KNHC 241152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO NEAR 13N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MASKING THE EXACT LOCATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N47W TO 17N52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 50W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N67W TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 13N69W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N15W 5N31W 7N48W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N22W TO 5N33W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N101W WHILE THE N GULF IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM 25N85W TO APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-27N. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF TO TEXAS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTS THE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 66W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE SW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 68W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-80W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 50W-76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 76W-81W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/ GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW