000 AXNT20 KNHC 240543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 23N77W ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 12N81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR 15N15W INTO THE E ATLC WATERS TO 5N18W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION MASKING THE EXACT LOCATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 47W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 15N69W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N18W 5N30W 12N47W 10N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTING ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 25W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WHILE THE N GULF IS EXPERIENCING NEAR ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 27N TO ACROSS CUBA E OF 87W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXETNDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES TO E TEXAS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NW GULF N OF 16N W OF 90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WHILE THE SW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 68W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-79W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 58W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 76W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW