000 AXNT20 KNHC 240005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 24N76W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 14N80W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING MOST OF THE EAST...CENTRAL...AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR WEST AFRICA EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA..AND GUINEA BISSAU. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 3N TO 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF A RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THEREFORE...MOS OF THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND LOCATED FAR EAST OF THE SYSTEM FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 41W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR GUINEA AROUND 10N15W...WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 9N40W 7N50W 10N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA..AND GUINEA BISSAU. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING A LONGWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE ENERGY FROM THE REAR-RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE LONGWAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND EASTERN TEXAS. THE SAME FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHING A LONGWAVE INTO THE EASTERN BASIN....GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SE BASIN INCREASING THE WEATHER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 82W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 65W AND THE OTHER ALONG 78W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 20N E OF 70W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PRODUCED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE OVER THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER ONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 26N55W IS MOVING MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC GENERATING SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 48W-55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA