000 AXNT20 KNHC 231801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 23N76W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 13N76W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING A LARGER AREA FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 65W-83W. THE MORE INTENSE AREAS OF CONVECTION AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N44W TO 06N46W MOVING W 20-25 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A BROAD LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SURROUNDING ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THAT SOUTH QUADRANT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N60W TO 18N71W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 06N25W 10N42W 07N47W 08N56W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 08W-21W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY BEING GENERATED BY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE READY TO EMERGE OFF THE W AFRICA COAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 21W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG 58W S OF 11N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AND IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 21N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W AND INLAND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS GULF COASTS. FARTHER SE...ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INITIATING WITH NEAR MAXIMUM AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 64W AND THE OTHER ALONG 76W. WITH A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 16N CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W...IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 26N W OF 67W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N57W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN...MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 48W-81W. ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 20N...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N40W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH WESTWARD ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN