000 AXNT20 KNHC 231158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 16N75W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-745W. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE S BAHAMAS FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 65W-78W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TOWARD THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 38W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-65W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N58W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 15N62W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N25W 9N41W 7N49W 8N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 56W/57W S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTING ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10W13W AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN 17W-25W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 26N ANCHORED OVER SW ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXETNDS ACROSS N FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND FAR E TEXAS BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N TO THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 84W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N71W EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-82W AND S OF 18N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT N OF 25N W OF 62W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N57W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-79W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 74W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS INCLUDING SOME OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...IS N OF THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW