000 AXNT20 KNHC 230553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 17N75W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE S BAHAMAS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 64W-79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 16N39W TO 4N41W MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS A THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 35W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N27W 8N39W 5N49W 7N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 56W/57W S OF 11N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ E OF 15W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 19W-23W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 27W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 7N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 26N ANCHORED OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE S GULF CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. A THIRD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING ALONG 90W FROM 26N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-86W WITH REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N TO JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 87W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT N OF 26N W OF 64 W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N56W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-77W. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...IS N OF THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY UPPER RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N38W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N TO THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR AND AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW