000 AXNT20 KNHC 221759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 22N73W ACROSS HAITI ALONG 15N72W TO 11N70W MOVING WNW 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 66W-77W. THIS CONVECTIVE AREA AND OUTLYING PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THE WAVE CONTINUES TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 TO 20 KT. A LOW LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS SITUATED W OF THIS WAVE. BOTH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN DUST LAYER WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 50W. ALONG THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS S OF 10N33W TO 5N35W...A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 20W-40W SERVES AS THE SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 30W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 19N83W TO 27N87W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W IN THE NE GULF AND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-86W IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 07N22W 08N33W 06N43W 10N59W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 52W S OF 14N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 52W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 18W-30W AND FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 36W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 87W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF RIDGE CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 23N. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA SE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N91W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N64W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 15N TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N57W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THEN SW TO WESTERN CUBA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED MAINLY N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM N OF 24N TO THE DISCUSSION BORDER NEAR 32N WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO 24N AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N57W GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 50W-72W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N36W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N60W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST COVERING A LARGE AREA OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 27N E OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS/HUFFMAN