000
AXNT20 KNHC 221145
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM 21N70W ACROSS CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 
15N72W TO OVER LAKE MARACAIBO NEAR 10N71W MOVING WNW 10 KT. WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS 
INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 
15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W 
AND 72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A 
DRY LOW LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE ANALYZED 
AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N36W TO 10N38W WITH A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DRY CIRCULATION TO THE E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS AND A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS S OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 28W-31W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA MOVING NW 15-20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N85W TO 14N81W  
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED 
MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE OF UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES AND LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 7N20W 5N32W 7N48W 8N59W. 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 
50W/51W S OF 11N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 48W-53W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 21W-27W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 34W-42W... 
AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 34W-38W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-13N 
E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W 
OF 87W WITH AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE 
FAR SE GULF. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL 
GEORGIA TO SE LOUISIANA WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE 
E BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC IN 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF ANDROS ISLAND TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 
JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 
26N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA 
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE E GULF FROM 23N-26N E OF 
86W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND 
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE 
S OF TUXPAN TO JUST E OVER VERA CRUZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE BEING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A 
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W 
EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 78W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 15N81W COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN. A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST W OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N63W AND EXTENDS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
AND INTO A PORTION OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ENHANING THE 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND WITHIN 75/90 
NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM W COLOMBIA TO 
NICARAGUA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS S 
OF ANDROS ISLAND TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. MUCH OF 
THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE E OF UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W WITH A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 77W ANCHORED JUST W 
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES...IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
ENHANCED BY UPPER RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 
32N35W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ALONG 30N56W TO OVER THE E GULF 
OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SE 
LOUISIANA KEEPING THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE 
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR 
AND AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 24N E OF 53W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW