000 AXNT20 KNHC 210552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A DRY LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N23W. THE UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES THAT THIS LOW CENTER PASSED THERE AROUND 20/0000 UTC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DRY CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITH A PEAK IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N47W 5N50W 2N51W... AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 51W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN COASTAL AREAS OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA... MOVING ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND BARBADOS...AND READY TO APPROACH THE OTHER SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS... AS LONG AS EVERYTHING REMAINS INTACT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N77W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA ALONG 81W. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N23W 4N30W 7N47W 7N57W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SPINNING THROUGH MEXICO NEAR 23N104W. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE 23N104W CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N91W. SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W. THE REST OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...IN MOST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST AND IN COASTAL WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF IT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W...TO A 26N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 20N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N30W TO A 23N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N49W AND 12N55W...WITH NO APPARENT PRECIPITATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT