000 AXNT20 KNHC 201106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N35W 6N33W 2N33W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N38W 6N43W 1N47W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N50W 8N55W 9N59W 14N59W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND MAINLAND SOUTH AMERICA IF IT REMAINS INTACT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N70W...CROSSING THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N73W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON TOP OF AND AROUND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. EVERYTHING HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W... INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N83W...ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS NOT APPARENT ANY MORE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 10N76W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W...IN AN AREA OF LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF IT. THIS PRECIPITATION GOES FROM THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 7N23W 7N37W 5N49W 9N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 25W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC...BUT NOT AS UNIFORMLY CYCLONIC AS IT WAS DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N90W... 28N AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE MEXICO WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM T.S. CELIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 7N TO 12N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR MARTINIQUE AND SAINT LUCIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWEST OF 25N80W 25N76W 27N70W BEYOND 31N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W...TO A 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N80W 25N76W 27N70W BEYOND 31N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W 29N23W TO 21N41W...WITH NO APPARENT PRECIPITATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT