000 AXNT20 KNHC 192330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 10N37W 6N39W 1N43W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 36W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO EQ55W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 54W-57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-58W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 55W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 23N68W 18N69W 14N71W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 62W-70W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP SE-NE WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 12N-15N BETWEEN 59W-65W. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W FROM 6N-16N ACROSS COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W AFFECTING COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N23W 7N36W 8N55W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-35W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED DUE TO AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27W/28W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH LINING THE NE GULF COAST FROM A 1017 MB LOW IN ERN GEORGIA ENTERING FLORIDA NEAR 31N85W CONTINUING TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 81W-91W. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N90W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 29N99W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER SW CUBA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W AFFECTING COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W IS ALSO ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-81W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 23N68W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 14N71W IS AFFECTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 12N-15N BETWEEN 59W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN VENEZUELA FROM 11N63W TO 7N64W IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 14N80W. EXPECT ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW AND NE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...AND SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. A DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 23N68W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 60W-72W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 36W27W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E FROM NEAR 36N15W TO 14N50W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL E ATLC CENTERED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON