000 AXNT20 KNHC 191758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 02N38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS AND IT ALSO LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 25W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LARGELY NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 11N32W. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 33W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N52W TO 03N55W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 49W-59W...AND THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 50W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N64W ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 14N67W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. LARGELY A NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC AND LESSER ANTILLES...THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS PRIMARILY KEEPING CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING FURTHER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 60W-68W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 56W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N81W TO INLAND OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE TYPICALLY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...A SMALL AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE SE PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALSO EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE WHICH CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION BETWEEN 75W-84W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 05N22W 07N36W 05N45W 07N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 19W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE W AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 08W-17W...AND WITHIN 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 30N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE NW FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-93W. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DYNAMICS ARE ALSO PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NW AND SE SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING SW FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SW TO 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 28N99W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF WITH OVERALL STABLE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N87W TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AROUND 19/1158 UTC...WHILE SE WINDS TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY W OF 95W THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 14N70W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 17N53W AND WESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. MOVING BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES LOCATED OVER DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. ONE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN-MOST PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO 14N68W. E-SE WINDS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH IS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO BEYOND 20N BETWEEN 58W-70W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IMPACTING THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA GENERATING AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF 80W THAT EXPANDS NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N77W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SW GEORGIA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 26N-30N ALONG 80W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MAXIMUM AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND AN AREA OF NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 71W-79W. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE DISCUSSION BORDER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N63W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 33N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 57W-74W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 24N64W TO 18N67W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIND SHEAR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC NW OF THE WAVE AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ATLC OCEAN WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 56W-69W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAINS UNDER STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 13N E OF 55W DUE TO A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 31N35W TO 29N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN