000 AXNT20 KNHC 191056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY 16 JUNE INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE THAT IS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS...AND SOME SHOWERS REMAIN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N50W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN JUST THE WAVE. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N64W... CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...13N68W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN STILL FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. STILL...OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COMPARATIVELY REALLY BIG MASS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N78W 10N80W TO 3N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N78W 12N82W TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...AND MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA... TO 5N20W 6N27W 4N44W TO 5N55W IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W... AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN COVERS MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 104W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 92W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N64W... CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...13N68W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN STILL FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. STILL...OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COMPARATIVELY REALLY BIG MASS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N78W 10N80W TO 3N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N78W 12N82W TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...AND MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 71W AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N64W 23N66W 20N70W...TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N27W...TO 22N38W 20N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N48W 27N63W TO 27N73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 31N NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 60W...WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT