000 AXNT20 KNHC 190600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY 16 JUNE INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE THAT IS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 8N34W. OTHER ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N48W 6N50W 2N51W... AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 51W IN BRAZIL TOWARD THE EQUATOR... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. OTHER SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N63W 18N64W 14N67W...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W ACROSS THE NEARBY EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ROUGHLY FROM MARTINIQUE TO DOMINICA TO GUADELOUPE. SIMILAR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W...TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FROM MONTSERRAT TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PUERTO RICO MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS PRECIPITATION IF IT REMAINS INTACT AND SPREADS WESTWARD. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N78W 8N80W TO 3N81W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH PROVIDES SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ORDER TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...AND IN EL SALVADOR. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...ALONG 5N/6N TO 33W...TO 3N38W AND 5N49W...TO 5N52W AND 5N56W IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 5N WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS BETWEEN 37W AND 44W LEADS INTO THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS AROUND THE 11N48W 2N51W TROPICAL WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN COVERS MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 104W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL SECTIONS FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W...BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND 97W IN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N78W 8N80W TO 3N81W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...AND IN EL SALVADOR. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N63W 18N64W 14N67W... MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W ACROSS THE NEARBY EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ROUGHLY FROM MARTINIQUE TO DOMINICA TO GUADELOUPE. SIMILAR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W...TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FROM MONTSERRAT TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PUERTO RICO MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS PRECIPITATION IF IT REMAINS INTACT AND SPREADS WESTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 71W AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N63W 23N66W 21N70W...TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N23W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N28W...TO 21N39W 20N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 29N50W 28N65W TO 27N75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT