000 AXNT20 KNHC 182342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 2N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 34W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 1S50W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5S-3N BETWEEN 49W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 23N62W 18N64W 15N64W 12N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 55W-65W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP SE-NE WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 58W-64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 12N-16N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W FROM 4N-13N ACROSS PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT ENHANCING THE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FARTHER NW FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 81W-87W AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N9W 6N20W 7N34W 4N41W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 59W FROM 2N-10N ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM EQ-11N BETWEEN 55W-64W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NW BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN COAST OF GEORGIA AND INTO NE FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE NE GULF COAST E OF 91W INCLUDING SE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 28N99W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONGER E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 15 KT. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER MUCH OF CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HAITI DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W AFFECTING PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FARTHER NW FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 81W-87W AFFECTING COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N65W IS SUPPORTING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N E OF 65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO S OF 16N. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE TRACKS WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 77W-79W...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N71W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. A DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SE OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 23N62W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 58W-64W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 38N22W AND 41N33W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W TO THE NE TO NEAR 41N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E FROM NEAR 45N19W E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS TO 19N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON