000 AXNT20 KNHC 181756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 02N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 30W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N47W TO 03N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 44W-53W. THE WAVE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 58W WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 45W-50W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N61W ACROSS SAINT KITTS TO 14N63W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOTED FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 55W-64W AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 18/1036 UTC...AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED RETRIEVALS EXHIBITING CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 56W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO INLAND OVER EXTREME WESTERN COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC GYRE TYPICALLY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...A SMALL AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER COINCIDING WITH THE WAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALSO EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION BETWEEN 78W-82W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 06N31W 07N49W 07N58W 09N70W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND DIPS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. ALSO...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N81W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BRUNSWICK GEORGIA TO NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NE OF A LINE FROM 29N90W NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DYNAMICS ARE ALSO PROVIDING FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NW AND SE SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 28N99W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NE INTO THE SE CONUS AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF WITH OVERALL STABLE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE CONVECTION NEAR 27N88W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER ON AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AROUND 18/1215 UTC...WHILE SE WINDS TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY W OF 94W THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS RETAINING MUCH OF THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND AS A RESULT IS PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ALOFT FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 14N83W TO 09N76W. THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER PANAMA THAT EXPANDS NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM BRUNSWICK GEORGIA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 34N BETWEEN 70W-80W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 70W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA LARGELY DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE INTERACTION AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 26N EXTENDING TO 80W. THIS SURFACE RIDGING IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 28N TO 72W. FARTHER SE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 24N61W TO 18N63W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 56W-64W. ALOFT...THIS FEATURE IS POSITIONED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST AN AREA OF HIGH UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE...THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS UNDER STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 15N E OF 55W DUE TO A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 31N30W 29N50W AND INTO THE W ATLC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN