000 AXNT20 KNHC 180600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTH OF 13N. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N60W. SEVERAL DAYS AGO THIS SYSTEM HAD A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH TO 22N BETWEEN 52W-61W. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 13N...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DEPICTS SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH A NWD CLEARING OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 1N TO 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR TO THE N OF THIS FEATURE SUPPRESS THE WAVE CONVECTION. CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WHITING 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONGER CONVECTION IS FOUND INLAND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-77W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL IMPACT THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS IT MOVES WWD UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE GUINEA COAST OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 7N40W 5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 52W S OF 8N COINCIDING WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM THE COASTS OF GUYANA..SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N87W. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR NE GULF...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 24N TO 30N. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NORTH OF 28N AND SOUTH OF 26N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 18N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OFF THE FAR SW GULF COAST FROM TAMPICO TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ARE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 74W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 14N. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 13N OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF 24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR NORTH OF 22 WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LINES THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN 40W-60W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IS ANALYZED JUST 3O NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPANDS TO 22N BETWEEN 52W-61W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA