000 AXNT20 KNHC 171034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 2N39W MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N66W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO BEYOND 10N69W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED NE/SW WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 62W-68W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 5N23W 5N41W 3N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 43W FROM 3N-8N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 41W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 47W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8N21W TO 5N37W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 37W-41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-11N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF NEAR 23N91W GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-90W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA NE TO 24N84W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 22N87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SW GULF EXTENDING FROM TAMPICO TO JUST E OF VERA CRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM N OF TAMPICO NEAR 23N98W TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 71W-86W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 19N78W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. CONVERGENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 38W-45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 30N54W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 31N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SECOND BROADER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 38W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N31W SW ALONG 25N45W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 21N. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW...IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N54W TO 13N56W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 51W-56W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE