000 AXNT20 KNHC 170535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 2N37W MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N65W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 10N67W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED NE/SW WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N69W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N64W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N23W 5N37W 3N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 41W FROM 3N-8N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 38W-48W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 31W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF NEAR 23N93W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W NE TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 27N E OF 84W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO COMPLIMENTS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 70W-86W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL HAITI NEAR 19N72W ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO 21N80W. CONVERGENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 75W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N61W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N32W SW ALONG 25N44W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW...IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 54W/55W BETWEEN 10N-18N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 55W 59W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE