000 AXNT20 KNHC 161052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE CONTINUES TO LAG THE LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT REMAINS IN A SLIGHT LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 8N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N23W 2N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225/250 NM S OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10W-47W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 22W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 24N97W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W N TO OVER THE NE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF 90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 83W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-82W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N E OF 82W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM SW HAITI ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO 21N80W. CONVERGENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 75W-82W AND S OF 17N FROM 82W-87W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 28N W OF 77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ENTERING THE FAR W ATLC NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA THEN SW TO INLAND OVER JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST N OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 31N70W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH BECAME EVIDENT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDING ALONG 30N FROM 69W-76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING N OF THE TROUGH TO 31N BETWEEN 73W-76W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N37 SW ALONG 25N59W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N49W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 16N/17N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE