000 AXNT20 KNHC 151803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1750 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N43W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 44W-47W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW AT 10 KT TO 15 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM2N TO 11N MOVING WEST NEAR 7 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N55W TO INLAND OVER GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N59W MOVING WEST 13 KT. NO CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF 10N ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W 4N51W. NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 33W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N92W SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA SUPPORTING AND AREA OF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BASIN NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FAR EASTERN GULF PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS FURTHER MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RETURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT TO 15 KT SOUTH OF 25N...BECOMING RETURN FLOW NORTH OF 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AIRMASS COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS CAN BE TRACKED ALONG 15N83W 12N73W 13N61W...A SHARP CONTRAST BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR IS FOUND ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS LINE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITHIN 80 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS CONVECTION IS THE REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WEST OF 49W. HOWEVER. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT NEARLY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 27N46W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GRAMS/GARCIA