000 AXNT20 KNHC 151157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N43W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 43W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW AT ABOUT 15 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAIL A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF 15N INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION DRIFTING SLOWLY WNW. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A BROAD BUT WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FROM 22N93W ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 18N94W IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH. SEE GULF OF MEXICO BELOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N17W 1N33W 4N47W 3N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 4N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA JUST W OF NEW ORLEANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N94W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE TO OVER THE E GULF TO NEAR 27N85W. THIS SCENARIO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 91W-97W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF 23N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 84W-87W LEAVING THE N GULF AND NE GULF CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N74W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 83W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF GONAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N57W ARE KEEPING THE W ATLC UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING TO 28N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N52W AND SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 28N BETWEEN 35W-45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N33W TO 23N48W. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 48W ALONG 15N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE