000 AXNT20 KNHC 150531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N42W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-44W. THE SYSTEM HAS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W-NW TO NW AT ABOUT 13 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N20W TO 1N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT AREA MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N52W TO 3N54W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAIL A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N82W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A BROAD BUT WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING INLAND ALONG THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N93W ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 18N94W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. WAVE IS BEING PULLED N AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. ANY CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 9N19W 6N26W 8N36W 5N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-23W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-51W INCLUDING THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA JUST W OF NEW ORLEANS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW GULF TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N95W AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE TO OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO BETWEEN 88W-95W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER S MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT HAS DEVELOPED INTO A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEAR JAMAICA AND EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE TO W CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 85W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HAITI ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE W ATLC UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING ALONG 27N51W TO 26N59W AND SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 27N BETWEEN 35W-45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N33W TO 22N48W. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 45W ALONG 15N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE