000 AXNT20 KNHC 142354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1250 MILES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...FOCUSED ON A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N41W. THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE DAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVING IT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY N OF THE SYSTEM FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N20W TO 1N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND NEAR 7N21W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N49W TO 4N55W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 52W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N79W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 6N85W REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONFIRMED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 77W-85W. MORE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. SEE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 22N REMAINING MOSTLY STATIONARY. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. SEE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N16W 3N20W 7N33W 4N44W 7N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N90W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N96W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W S OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-92W...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ENTERING THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 76W-86W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N79W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 6N85W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR 18N80W.AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER WRN HONDURAS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC W OF 60W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N62W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N38W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N47W 27N52W 26N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 47N20W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 38N22W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON