000 AXNT20 KNHC 141752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1750 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N41W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 2N TO 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAP MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE...INDICATING LOW TO MODERATE VALES IN THIS REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 2N AND 11N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W 13N FROM 2N TO 17N MOVING WEST 13 KT. WAVE IS MOVING OVER LOW VALUES OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG OR NEAR THE WAVE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WAVE IS ALONG 53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND HAS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N TO 14N WEST OF 74W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 4.5N40W 5N50W 9N60W. NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 2N AND 11N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 28W DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE REGARDING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 91W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF 90W IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN TO CREATE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RETURN FLOW 10 KT TO 15 KT WEST OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AIRMASS IS PUSHING INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS...AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 81W. THIS ARE OF SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED INLAND OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. RECENT CLOUD MOVEMENT ANALYSIS USING SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE WAVE AXIS REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS 17N. THE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 75W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS KEEPING THIS REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N46W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 27N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 25N62W...BECOMING A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 26N70W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ALONG 40W FROM 22N TO 27N PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA/GRAMS