000 AXNT20 KNHC 141205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH ZZZZ UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N38W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 37W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS BETWEEN THE BROAD LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN SATELLITE WINDS S OF 10N. WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAIL A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N82W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND HAS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 9N19W 6N26W 8N36W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-23W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 6W-16W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N GULF NEAR 28N90W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW GULF TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 21N96W GIVING THE GULF OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 85W-89W AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 91W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING TO NEAR 72W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES DEVELOPING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM SAINT LUCIA ALONG 14N72W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N77W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS N OF THE LINE WHILE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO THE S. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR AXIS IS DEVELOPING SOME CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 53W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DIPPING S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 77W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING TO 29N50W BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N59W AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 24N BETWEEN 37W-50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 39W FROM 22N-28N BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 15N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE