000 AXNT20 KNHC 140534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 890 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N38W. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 36W-39W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N29W TO 14N35W. THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS BETWEEN THE BROAD LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE E. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N47W TO 2N49W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN SATELLITE WINDS. WAVE IS NOW TRAILING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N82W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND HAS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N76W TO 13N82W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N18W 9N16W 6N44W 5N56W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING FURTHER OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-14N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 6W-23W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N GULF NEAR 28N89W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW GULF AND A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 22N95W GIVING THE GULF OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JACKSONVILLE JUST E OF TAMPA TO NEAR NAPLES BISECTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE GENERATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH HAVE MOVED IN THE NE GULF FROM 27N-29N E OF 84W. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING TO NEAR 77W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES DEVELOPING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE ALONG 16N72W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS N OF THE LINE WHILE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO THE S. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR AXIS IS DEVELOPING SOME CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER HAITI/THE GULF OF GONAVE AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 53W-80W AND DIPPING S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING TO 26N59W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 25N68W AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 24N BETWEEN 40W-50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 38W FROM 20N-27N AND PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W ALONG 15N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE