000 AXNT20 KNHC 140000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 975 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N37W. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 35W-39W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES E OF A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N44W TO 2N47W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N18W 10N30W 4N41W 5N51W 7N58W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 13W-18W PRECEDING THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THAT STILL REMAINS OVER WRN AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG NE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 29N89W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 86W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 30N83W TO 25N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY STATIONARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-86W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG 71W FROM 17W-21W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE ANTILLES TO E OF JAMAICA. HOWEVER...A DRY AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE ERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N65W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG 30N44W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N49W 26N56W 26N62W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 41N24W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 42N25W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 27N CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON