000 AXNT20 KNHC 131843 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1830 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N35W IN. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF RELATIVE MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND LARGELY REMAINING EAST OF 22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR OR ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 1N TO 15N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 8.5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 7N60W. NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES DISCUSSION ABOVE REGARDING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND GUINEA-BISSAU. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N93W MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASIN SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION AND SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N80W TO 24N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF 27N. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE BASIN..INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AIRMASS IS PUSHING INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 69W FROM 15N TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. THE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 73W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 60W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N61W. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N47W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 29N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 25N63W...BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 27N70W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 15N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA