000 AXNT20 KNHC 130556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND LARGELY REMAINING E OF 20W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN 700-850 MB TROUGH AXIS NW OF THE WAVE MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. AS TYPICAL WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING USUALLY LOCATED OVER LAND...THE WAVE LACKS AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 12W-17W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 24W-40W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 29W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WITHIN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 73W-80W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N14W 06N31W 07N38W 05N47W 09N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 04N-10N ALONG 26W AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 06N31W. FARTHER WEST...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE BETWEEN 50W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER EASTERN TEXAS NEAR 31N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL MEXICO. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND SW GULF WITH TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N84W TO THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N92W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 23N E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W IS PROVIDING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WITH ELEVATED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 76W. STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND STRETCHES NW TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N ALONG 65W CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-71W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W MOVING WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. HOWEVER...EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 32N48W TO 21N57W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 27N60W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 46W TO THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER WEST...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N ALONG 78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 44N26W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N E OF 45W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N32W ALONG 20N45W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W. ELSEWHERE....A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 14N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN