000 AXNT20 KNHC 121804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W FROM 5N TO 12N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR OR ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING WEST 8 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 5N40W 6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. IN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 26W FROM 4N TO 10N..AND A SURFACE LOW ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 7N32W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 10N BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF 90W AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF 91W. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... REMNANT CONVECTION FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN A DAY OR SO...IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WITHIN 150 NM. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 16N CROSSING OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR OR ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL BE BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 78W IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 70W...SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 30N79W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 27N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 27N70W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W FROM 15N TO 21N. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LOOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA