000 AXNT20 KNHC 121042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...IT APPEARS THE WAVE HAS TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR AFRICA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS FINALLY EMERGING OFF THE COAST. A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-38W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 25W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER NW VENEZUELA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N86W ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N79W TO 19N88W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N17W 06N31W 04N45W 05N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N22W TO 05N24W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 07N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W S OF 10N INTO INTERIOR EASTERN SURINAME. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N84W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 87W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 79W. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 21N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN NW TO OVER HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THEREFORE IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 22N57W TO DOMINICA NEAR 15N61W CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-75W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NE OF ANGUILLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 61W-63W MOVING WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. ELEVATED VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-74W AND S OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-92W AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESSING WESTWARD... ARE PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N79W TO 19N88W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N71W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 23N64W TO 25N50W. HOWEVER...NORTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A DEEP LATER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 28N BETWEEN 50W-62W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 30N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 28N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ALONG 28N75W TO 25N78W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 75W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N27W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N E OF 50W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N57W TO 15N61W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 52W-64W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N39W ALONG 20N50W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN