000 AXNT20 KNHC 120554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...IT APPEARS THE WAVE HAS TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR AFRICA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS FINALLY EMERGING OFF THE COAST. A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 14W-18W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-37W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 68W-76W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N84W ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 78W-91W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N16W 05N36W 04N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 09N21W TO 05N24W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DEPICTED CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 08N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W S OF 09N INTO INTERIOR FRENCH GUIANA. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 51W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N84W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SW OFF OF CUBA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N77W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CONNECTED TO ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THEREFORE IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 73W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 59W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. ELEVATED VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 64W-74W AND S OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-88W AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESSING WESTWARD...ARE PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY S OF 19N W OF 77W TO OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N73W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 23N60W TO 26N48W. HOWEVER...NE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A DEEP LATER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN 50W-65W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N56W TO 28N61W TO 28N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N76W TO 23N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 76W-79W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N29W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N E OF 50W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 23N55W TO 16N57W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 52W-63W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N38W ALONG 20N50W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N61W. ELSEWHERE....A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 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