000 AXNT20 KNHC 112328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W TO 4N36W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 36W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS WRN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 69W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS NICARAGUA ALONG 85W. WHILE THE WAVE AXIS LIES MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC...THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-88. SEE THE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N26W 7N36W 6N44W 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26W S OF 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 27W-34W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W S OF 10N ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N85W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALSO EXTENDING OFF NRN CUBA DUE TO SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA....AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-88 INFLUENCED BY AN E PACIFIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 69W-72W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES AND ENHANCED MOISTURE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N74W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 28N74W TO 24N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N59W TO 28N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 42N28W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N17W TO THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N62W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N55W TO 17N57W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON