000 AXNT20 KNHC 111046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 04N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEST OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 07N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS VENEZUELA...AND A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-70W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 07N32W 06N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 12W-32W. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 51W WITH A BROAD 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 43W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH NW FLOW LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W TO EASTERN MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SE WINDS DOMINATE WITH HIGHER VALUES UP TO 20 KT LOCATED W OF 90W. OVERALL...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE POINT 25N82W...WITHIN 30 NM OF THE POINT 28N89W SOUTH OF SE LOUISIANA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 91W-94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 72W-79W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALSO CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 12N FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N84W. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE PROPAGATING S OF 13N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA PROVIDING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-70W AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-85W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC OCEAN AND EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 28N72W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N64W 29N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 63W-73W AND OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 25N65W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 26N BETWEEN 50W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N28W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N53W TO 19N55W AND CONTINUES PROGRESSING WESTWARD ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N33W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE SOUTH CENTERED NEAR 13N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN