000 AXNT20 KNHC 110549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 07N31W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS VENEZUELA...AND WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM MOVING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 61W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. DISSIPATING CONVECTION THE PAST 6 HOURS IS NOTED OVER WESTERN PANAMA...HOWEVER...NEWLY FORMED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 07N32W 06N50W 08N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 10W-30W. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 42W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH NW FLOW LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EASTERN MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SE WINDS DOMINATE WITH HIGHER VALUES UP TO 20 KT LOCATED W OF 90W. OVERALL...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 90W-94W ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N90W TO 17N92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 12N FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N84W. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE PROPAGATING S OF 13N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA PROVIDING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE...AS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG WITH A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 61W-69W AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC OCEAN AND EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N65W 29N76W TO 26N79W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N BETWEEN 50W-63W AND THEN BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 64W-72W AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 27N73W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND GENERAL OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 27N BETWEEN 53W-73W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N30W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N51W TO 15N55W AND CONTINUES PROGRESSING WESTWARD ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 46W-58W. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N35W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH NEAR 35N33W...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE SOUTH CENTERED NEAR 12N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN