000 AXNT20 KNHC 102331 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 64W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 79W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING MUCH OF PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N20W 8N33W 6N50W 9N65W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 42W-47W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 48W-53W NEAR AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALSO EXTENDING OFF NRN CUBA DUE TO SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 79W-86W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 78W-74W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST E OF JAMAICA. THIS UPPER LOW IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO EACH SIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND COSTA RICA INFLUENCED BY AN E PACIFIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 64W-67W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE EWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N65W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 36N52W. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N55W ALONG 30N69W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 44N29W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N30W TO THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N62W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SQUISHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE N NEAR 36N32W...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE S. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON