000 AXNT20 KNHC 101047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS THE WAVE AXIS CORRESPONDING WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM N OF 05N BETWEEN 28W-32W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N61W TO 05N63W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SW OF GRENADA NEAR 11N62W. INCREASED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TO ADVECT NW OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 61W-65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 62W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 07N30W 06N45W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 16W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 45W. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR 20N106W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. E-SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BASIN WIDE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INCREASING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CUBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-86W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. ALSO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FALLS BENEATH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THEREFORE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE WAVE SWEEPS WESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 20N IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 15N E OF 69W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N67W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 29N TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 57W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-81W. THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A FLEETING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NE OF THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC ALONG 35N47W TO 30N52W. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N48W TO 27N50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 45W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N33W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN