000 AXNT20 KNHC 100553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS THE WAVE AXIS CORRESPONDS WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM N OF 05N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 28W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N59W TO 05N63W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SE OF GRENADA NEAR 12N61W. INCREASED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TO ADVECT NW OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 60W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 66W-73W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N09W 06N30W 06N49W 10N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 09W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 18W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR 20N109W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. E-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N90W TO 18N91W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH 60 NM OF THE YUCATAN COAST AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASED SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CUBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 83W...THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 10N60W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 83W. ALSO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FALLS BENEATH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THEREFORE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE WAVE SWEEPS WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W TO 28N67W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 60W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 78W-82W. THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC ALONG 37N51W TO 25N54W AND INTO THE NARROW TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG 20N...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N-27N ALONG 49W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 42W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N34W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN