000 AXNT20 KNHC 092318 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-30W. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 54W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N19W 7N29W 5N43W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-13W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SRN GEORGIA...AND ALSO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 36N69W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 82W FROM 10N-18N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCING CONVECTION IS THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N73W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 36N69W. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N51W TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W TO 28N69W BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W TO 24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 39N37W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 26N49W TO 19N47W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N42W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON