000 AXNT20 KNHC 091829 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 2N TO 9N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 62W FROM 9N TO 15N...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 15N HAVE REGISTERED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER GRENADA...SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND SAINT LUCIA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 5N30W 5N40W 7N50W 8N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 33W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF GHANA...COTE D'IVOIRE...LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND GUINEA-BISSAU TO 100 NM OFFSHORE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE OF THE HURRICANE SEASON HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND IT IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 15N. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 62W FROM 9N TO 15N MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 67W...STAYING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE GREATER ANTILLES...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR TECHNICAL DETAILS REGARDING THIS TROPICAL WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND IN THIS REGION SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THIS REGION. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N55W 29N62W 27N70W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N75W CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE SAME REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 47W FROM 18N TO 25N. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA