000 AXNT20 KNHC 091040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 12N56W TO 6N53W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH AN ILL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 59W-60W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANY CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 6N26W 3N40W 4N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 11N ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-16N BETWEEN 13W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 27W-31W AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 94W. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY IS INLAND WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W EXTENDING AN AXIS N TO OVER THE N GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC ENDS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 12N BETWEEN 66W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W ALONG 15N79W TO 12N79W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 75W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 31N63W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 52W-75W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MAINLY S OF 28N. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS...THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N45W N TO BEYOND 32N50W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N FROM 56W-73W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N48W TO 18N43W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE