000 AXNT20 KNHC 082315 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 22W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N52W TO 6N50W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 53W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO 5N62W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 61W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND E PACIFIC SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 76W-79W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N15W 7N23W 4N33W 7N50W 8N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 6W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 17W-21W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF NEAR 28N88W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 15 KT. AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 80W-82W. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN COVERING PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER ERN HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NEAR 18N70W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-88W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NRN S AMERICA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM QUEBEC CANADA TO 32N64W TO THE NRN COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 12N72W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W TO 27N75W BECOMING A DISSIPATED FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N69W TO 18N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 62W-68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N40W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON